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Baccarat Odds

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The game of baccarat can be played with 6 or 8 decks of cards and the probability distribution for a hand dealt from a complete shoe of 6 or 8 decks is as follows:

# of decks Banker wins Player wins Tie
1 deck      
6 decks 0.458653 0.446279 0.095069
8 decks 0.458597 0.446247 0.095156



The casino's commission on the winning Banker hand (4% or 5%) and payouts on a tie bet (8:1 or 9:1) implies the following house advantages:

# of decks Banker bet 5% Banker bet 4% Player bet Bet tie 9:1 Bet tie 8:1
1 deck* 1.01%   1.29%   15.57%
6 decks** 1.0558% 0.5972% 1.2374% 4.9313% 14.4382%
8 decks 1.0579% 0.5993% 1.2351% 4.8440% 14.3596%

*Single deck Baccarat offered by Microgaming Casinos.
**Six-deck Baccarat - PlayTech Casinos.

The probabilities for possible hands were calculated by Edward O. Thorp in his classic book "The Mathematics of Gambling".

He also determined that card counting is not effective at the baccarat tables. It works, but it is about 9 times less effective when compared to blackjack card counting.

And besides, the advantage of using card counting is " ... easily eliminated by shuffling the deck". All of online casinos shuffle the deck after every play.

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